17-18 Preview: Boys Preseason Top 20

Well, this is what we've been building up to. Boys today, girls tomorrow, then we finally get the season started for real.  By the way, thanks to whoever shared a link on Facebook: my hits went absolutely crazy the last few days and I hope you all keep checking back throughout the season.  Leave a comment or send me an email and let me know what you think.

I won't dive into the nuts and bolts of where I came up with these rankings, but this was a lot of work spread out between the end of last season and this week.  I can't pretend I'm sure I looked at every team with a legitimate argument, but I tried.  Probably made a few mistakes too. It won't take long for reality to show where I've succeeded and where I've failed, but if I've got something wrong about a bowler, please let me know.

note: I have made a couple of changes based on information I received after posting, but before the season started. That's why there's a tie at #20 as well.

THE TOP 20 BOYS BOWLING TEAMS IN NEW JERSEY (pre-season)

1. Brick Memorial
Absurd depth and talent mark the Mustangs as #1.  Look for huge years from Alec Hehir and John Boughton, with Michael Guzman, Andrew Varela and Cameron Waldheim all capable of putting up fantastic numbers in any given match. Shore South A is still a minefield- it may be even deeper than last year- but Memorial looks like an absolute powerhouse.  Again.

2. Woodbridge
Really, the Barrons are 1A.  These top two may jockey all season.  They lost some top talent from 2017, but James Stoveken is one of the very best around, and he'll be ably assisted by John Drost, Jason Bilawsky and Joseph Palmer, all of whom can average over 200.  Add in the impending arrival of transfer Giovanni Santiago in January and you have another powerhouse.  Again.

3. Toms River South
The Indians calling card last year was depth, and they still have it. Kyle Oliveri, Jimmy Breslin, Andrew Xiques and Kevin DiBernardo look like an intimidating top four, but TRS could get huge contributions from several others.

4. Brick Township
More depth. I see at least four that might average over 200: Kyle Chirichello, Nick Gross, Chris Shymanski and Steve Spirio.  If one or more jump up to the 210s, or if the seemingly endless pipeline comes up with another high average or two, the Dragons could challenge for the top spot.

5. East Brunswick
The defending TOC champs lost some quality competitors, but they return the very best top-two of any team in New Jersey in lefties Sam Bortnick and Daniel Lenk, plus a handful of very good bowlers like Jack Deruvo and Andrew Mai.

6. Jackson Liberty
Freshman Justin Bohn should have an immediate impact, and Brian Dalmar and Preston Williams look to be much improved, but the addition of transfer Gerard Chidichimo takes the Lions to an entirely new level.

7. Pascack Valley
Four Big North teams make the rankings, and the Indians look to be the strongest, returning four 190+ bowlers in Henry Tipping, Brian Biml, Scott Morris and Trevor Lauber.

8. Sussex Tech
Two-time defending Group II champs lost some talent, but the Mustangs bring back plenty, including one of the very best in Joey Steele, as well as Quinton Johnson and a rapidly-improving Pat Danielson.

9. Monroe
Last year's postseason miracle team will make another run at it behind a pair of juniors: Ryley McKiernan and budding superstar Louis Folgore, as well as one of last year's TOC heroes, Zac Waynor.

10. Ocean Township
Matt Redbord and Doug Rhoades are a pretty fearsome top two as well, and I think the kids behind them who looked good in limited action last year will develop enough to keep OT relevant statewide.

11. Fair Lawn
This could definitely be the Cutters' year: Jake & Tyler Nappi have proven ability, and Nick Greco is an emerging star. Look for a season-long battle with Wayne Hills in the Big North Independence.

12. Southern
There's more to Shore-South-A than the Bricks and TRS: Southern brings back four experienced bowlers with averages over 190: Jack Hudson, Steve Martin, Tom McCann and Jeff Wilkinson.

13. North Arlington
2017's NJIC-Meadowlands runnersup return their entire lineup: Eric McKenna, Brandon Barth, Liam Henkel and Kenny Bennett.

14. Wayne Hills
One of last year's pleasant postseason surprises, the Patriots feature 5 solid starters as well, including Tom Luchetta, Nick Kent, and a much-improved Dylan Heinold.

15. Howell
Four strong starters return from a team that did very well in tournaments last season, including Brian Garofano, Robbie Wetzel, Gus Horvath and Joe Inserra.

16. South Brunswick
Major Group IV contenders in 2017 lost some depth, but still have plenty of firepower in Noah Li, Nick Delacruz and Anthony Fama.

17. Montville
Some amazing seniors are gone this year, plenty of ability remains: Adam Gelvan and Ron Gorai were great in 2017, and promising freshman Ben Sherman should help keep them atop the NJAC South.

18. Lacey
The Shore South B favorites (and defending champs) return four staters: Nick Striffler, Clayton Humcke, John Truland and Brian Huebler.

19. Hudson Catholic
Last year's HCIAL runnersup look like the favorites in 2018, featuring the league's top bowler in Geoffrey Origenes and a very strong lineup including Jivan Persaud, James Pabilonia and Steven Beck.

(tie)20. St. Rose
An excellent top four in Jarrett Toth, Carter Vanderslice, Joe Chiusano and David Schuld make them a true contender in Group I.

(tie)20. Ridgewood
Matt Myers and Brian Skettini lead one of the rare Big North teams that may go a legit 5+ deep. Very dangerous tournament squad.

SIX TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Manasquan
Group I champs lost a ton, but Dylan Wolfe & Kyle Bauter are a strong cornerstone to build from.

Manchester
Kenny Burdge and Justin Villano head a young squad that just may get there a year ahead of schedule.

Neptune
Not sure I have the returnees exactly right, but I think Sean Magauran and Jesse Kifner are the best of a solid group; when Joey Ocello joins them in January they'll be able to compete with anyone.

St. Peter's Prep
Qualified for states in 2017 and return strong top 3 in Jared Ammugauan, Zack Oswald and Lynken Lanting.

South Plainfield
Angelo Salici is a star and Michael Menkin is very good; they'll be competitive in a tough GMC.

Toms River North
James Bolish, Robert Bartley and Josh Burns (the Killer B's?) head yet another top-flight team in the Shore-South-A.

THREE MORE THAT MAY BREAK THROUGH

Edison
Jason Smith, Wyatt Buchany and Joseph Banwer form the core of another solid GMC team.

Indian Hills
May not dominate the Big North again, but with firepower like Ryan McGuire and Jack Miller coming back, I won't bet against them, either.

St. Joseph's-Metuchen
John Hoban, Justin Biancamano & John Reggio return to defend their sectional title.

17-18 Preview: Projected Sectional Favorites

Here are my irresponsibly early projections for the favorites in each of the 32 sectional tournaments that will take place in February.  The vast majority of these are based on objective analysis, but there are one or two that are basically guesses that will make me look stupid before too long.  If you really care, you can extrapolate some of my preseason rankings from this a day early, too.

Please note: this is based on my own projection of what group each team will be in come sectional season. (My full group change projections went up in the "other stuff" post.)  This, as we all know, can easily change based on what schools do or do not enter the sectional tournament.  I'll note the predicted group changes as they affect the favorites as we go.  For entertainment purposes only, as they say.

BOYS NORTH 1A

I - North Arlington
II - Ridgefield Park
III - Pascack Valley
IV - Fair Lawn

Ridgefield Park drops from Group III to Group II.  Fair Lawn vs. Ridgewood may be the marquee matchup here.

BOYS NORTH 1B

I - Hudson Catholic
II - Sussex Tech
III - Wayne Hills
IV - St. Peter's Prep

Dickinson (IV to III) and Hopatcong (III to IV) swap places and each have a chance to advance.

BOYS NORTH II

I - Jonathan Dayton
II - Montville
III - Warren Hills
IV - Livingston

Caldwell drops from II to I, Linden up from III to IV.  Graduation hit this section very hard, and I have less confidence here than in any of the other 7.  Could be wide open.

BOYS CENTRAL

I - St. Rose
II - Ocean Township
III - Woodbridge
IV - East Brunswick

This is the biggest group change I'm forecasting: defending state champs Monroe jump from III to IV and must face defending TOC champ East Brunswick at sectionals, with Howell & South Brunswick also involved.  This may be the 2018 Group of Death.

BOYS SOUTH

I - Maple Shade
II - Jackson Liberty
III - Toms River South
IV - Brick Memorial

Jackson Liberty drops from Group III (TRS and Brick Twp) to Group II, which gives them a better shot at advancing, though far from a lock.

GIRLS NORTH

I - Ramsey
II - Holy Angels
III - Warren Hills
IV - Hackensack

Hackensack moves from brutal group III (WH, Teaneck, Wayne Valley) to become clear favorites at Group IV.

GIRLS CENTRAL

I - Manasquan
II - Colts Neck
III - Edison
IV - Monroe

Just like the boys, Monroe's girls jump to Group IV.  Colts Neck, Ocean Twp, Colonia & South Plainfield make Group II very competitive. Edison vs. Freehold Township is a coin flip, really.

GIRLS SOUTH

I - Collingswood
II - Manchester Township
III - Brick Township
IV - Toms River North

All four of these are very, very tight, with Brick Memorial and Washington Twp (IV), TRS and Central (III), Lacey (II) and a host of Group I schools in the mix.

17-18 Preview: Other Stars & Other Stuff

UNAFFILIATED STARS

There are a handful of high school bowlers in New Jersey that deserve a preview mention despite not having a high school team to be a part of, including our defending boys individual champion.  There are several more very good high school-age bowlers out there, but I'm limiting myself to those that have competed in NJSIAA events.  If there are any more that belong and plan to enter this year, please let me know.

Ryan Carlisi, Senior, Steinert
The 2017 champ hasn't slowed down a bit since February, putting up impressive league scores.  He's definitely a threat to return at states.

Mark Friedman, Senior, Cedar Creek
Second place in the loaded South Jersey sectional in 2017 with a huge 738.

Lauren Marks, Junior, Parsippany
Qualified for individual states in 2017 in a brutal North Jersey sectional field.

Justin Pavlik, Senior, Ridge
Scored a terrific 300/761 in the Central sectional and made the cut at states with a 695 set.

Paige Piombino, Senior, West Morris Central
Finished 2017 with a 187 league average and a runnerup finish in the Morris County tournament.

Francis Vitelli, Junior, North Hunterdon
Second in South Jersey singles, second at Skyland Conference, made the cut at Junior Gold U20 and is the points leader in the NJ JBT.

JERSEY KIDS IN COLLEGE

Figured I'd check out the college ranks and see where the seniors we covered last year ended up.  Women have a huge advantage with bowling as an NCAA sport, of course, and because of the status of nearly all men's teams as "club sports" (despite the very competitive nature of their seasons), it's hard to find rosters, so this is just the girls.  I'm pretty much 100% sure that I'm missing a handful, so help me out here.

Alabama State - Alize Stevenson, St. Mary's
Belmont Abbey - Tori Bird, Brick Memorial; Touri Holmes, Edison
Caldwell - Gabby Pangaro, Clifton; Madison Perry, Hawthorne
Chestnut Hill - Madison Gibson, Howell; Laura Oliver, Central, Kristina Scimone, Eastern
Fairleigh Dickinson - Aimee Sherman, Jackson Memorial; Jenna Henderson, Warren Hills
Felician - Jenn Ingulli, Ocean Township
Franklin Pierce - Deanne Calantoni, Woodbridge
Kutztown - Jaime Golden, Sparta; Dana Henry, Ocean Township, Dorrie-Ann Rizzo, Wallkill Valley
Long Island University - Sarah Florence, Cedar Creek
Madaille - Carla Hansen, Gloucester Tech
Mount Aloysius - Michelle Bello, Pennsauken
New Jersey City - Shea Balmann, Pinelands; Valerie Moore, Old Bridge
Pikeville - Michelle Dekowski, Linden
Sam Houston State - Haley Connelly, Raritan
Vanderbilt - Lauren Potechin, Millburn
Wilmington - Clare Chaffer, Freehold Township; Leah Henry, Cumberland

That's 25 girls from the class of '17 (plus whoever I'm missing) on rosters.  Seems like a pretty good number to me.  Best of luck to all the Jersey girl freshmen (and the 60 or so older girls, too.)

GROUP CHANGES

By looking at the new NJSIAA enrollment figures, I have my PROJECTED groupings for the 2018 sectionals.  These are based on last year's entries, so any change in the entry list can change the groups at the margins; this is far, far from certain.

BOYS NORTH 1A
Park Ridge/Emerson down from II to I
Ridgefield Park down from III to II
St. Joseph-Montvale up from II to III
Queen of Peace (GI) closed

BOYS NORTH IB
Hopatcong up from III to IV
Dickinson down from IV to III
Wallkill Valley down from II to I
Harrison up from I to II

BOYS NORTH II
Phillipsburg (new program) in at IV
Linden down from IV to III
Nutley down from III to II
Caldwell down from II to I

BOYS CENTRAL
Monroe up from III to IV
Watchung Hills down from IV to III
Long Branch up from II to III
Middletown North down from III to II

BOYS SOUTH
Burlington Township up from II to III
Jackson Liberty down from III to II

GIRLS NORTH
Hackensack up from III to IV
Kearny down from IV to III
Phillipsburg (new program) in at III

GIRLS CENTRAL
Monroe up from III to IV
Watchung Hills down from IV to III

GIRLS SOUTH
Burlington Township up from II to III
Jackson Liberty down from III to II

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE BLOG IN '17-'18

The rankings I hope to continue weekly, starting in late December, and all the postseason previews and all-state picks should return.  I probably won't be able to write quite as many regular season updates as last year, unless the score-reporting situation gets a lot better, but I'll do what I can.

I'm ambivalent about the high averages lists, to say the least.  On the one hand, until the all-state lists came out, the top averages posts were by far the most popular on the blog. On the other hand, those numbers are dirty.  At the risk of getting on the wrong side of a few folks, I'm going to explain why.

Using players' conference averages as a basic evaluating tool is problematic for any number of reasons.  Some bowlers get to bowl every single conference game in the same center, while others have to score in two, three, maybe six different places.  Some centers are, of course, much higher scoring than others.  It is extremely probable that there are some bowlers averaging under 210 that, if they got to bowl the same schedule as someone at the top, might average well over 220.  Then we have kids who may average high in-conference but struggle in tournaments and vice-versa.  There's really no way to resolve any of these inherent problems, so I try to acknowledge them and present the data as is.

But there's one other thing that skews the numbers and it's completely avoidable.  Without mentioning any conferences, or teams, and definitely without mentioning any bowlers, there is a practice out there to replace a bowler mid-game when he's struggling and not count the game against his average.  There may be a handful of times when this practice is done to try to win the team point: I think that's legitimate.  But done exclusively to protect a player's average, this practice is, in my opinion, dishonest and it undermines the credibility of every player average involved.  In such a short season (40-60 games), if you have a 200 average bowler and yank him a half-dozen times where he would have shot 150, you bump his average 7 pins.  That's a significant change, and I'm disturbed by both the resulting questionable rankings, and the message it sends both the bowler who got the boost and the bowlers he's now undeservedly ranked above.

To be clear, this practice is, apparently, legal.  I'd love to ask all coaches to stop, but I'm sure that's naive.  I'd ask the NJSIAA to consider stepping in and outlawing the practice; what do you think would happen if a wrestling coach were allowed to pull his star whenever he got behind in the 3rd period, so that he'd be undefeated when districts started?  But the NJSIAA will not consider anything unless the complaint comes from coaches or athletic directors.  I could stop doing the averages list altogether, but that's a baby/bathwater situation, I think, and the majority of the kids on the list aren't affected by these maneuvers. So all I can do is this: if you're reading this and you agree with me, tell your coaches and ADs.  There's no reason we can't get this changed.

Ok, off my soapbox.  A few more preview posts including preseason rankings and then Friday we'll finally get some pins flying around New Jersey.