One of the rankings factors I've been chasing since day one is the effect of what house teams bowl their matches in. I've yet to come up with a satisfactory answer, and the statistical analysis necessary to really approach the problem is beyond my time... and probably beyond my expertise, really. The problem comes in bold relief right here: Six of the top seven girls teams bowl every match at Ocean Lanes, which seems to be fairly high-scoring house. The seventh, Warren Hills, bowls half its matches at Oakwood Lanes, definitely a high-scoring house, and the other half at four different houses, all of which are considerably tougher. What effect does this have on the stats? Nothing? One pin? Ten pins? I have no idea. I tend to just go with the numbers. But after the past season and a half, I've come to the conclusion that the tournament record has to speak a little louder when the numbers are relatively close. Rankings were done before any regular season action this week.
THE TOP TWENTY GIRLS BOWLING TEAMS IN NEW JERSEY
1. Warren Hills (GA: 179.1 T5: 890)
Fourth best in both statistical measures, but two more tournament victories over the weekend, and they were the only team right at the top (11 pins ahead of Brick Twp Saturday, 5 pins back of TRN in qualifying Monday) in both events. Kelcie Mannon (202), Katie Winch (188) and Olivia Ostander (188) have all killed it in tournaments, and freshman Sam Irwin has her conference average up to 170. At this point, they've earned #1 until someone takes it away from them. Put up 2872 in a match last week, so it's not just tournaments where they shine.
2. Toms River North (GA: 185.8 T5: 927)
Absurdly talented, these Mariners; Paige and Kamerin Peters are amazing, and they have no less than four bowlers averaging over 170 behind them, including Mackenzie Dudas who's over 185 in tournaments. Fired 2816 & 2984 matches last week before the tournament weekend and showed great toughness in wrestling away the top seed from Warren Hills and surviving a tight semifinal. Five of the top six are underclassmen. Be afraid.
3. Brick Memorial (GA: 181.9 T5: 906)
Nearly a statistical dead heat between Memorial and Township - Friday's 2935 by Memorial is the best set either has thrown in a while, and Amanda Shelters has been nearly unstoppable, with a state-best 213 overall average. Mustangs got a 700 out of Veronica Lewis on Friday, and Rachel Katz is averaging over 188 as well, so you need to watch out for the entire lineup. Gonna be some fun battles with TRN next month.
4. Brick Township (GA: 180.9 T5: 907)
2nd at CJWC by just 11 pins, the Dragons will be co-favorites at states. Caylin Ryan has been on fire, shooting 650-632 over the weekend. Cristy Sharkey and Christina Gonzalez have been solid performers all season, and Julianna Forbes is capable of carrying to top team. They're 11-1 in matches in Shore-South-A, going up against 3 other top-7 teams.
5. Lacey Township (GA: 173.7 T5: 890)
The current hot team in New Jersey. Huge performance at Snowball, beating out rival Manchester and both Brick schools to make the semifinals. Outstanding top three in Liz Schreier, Julia Muro and Autumn Laird becomes an outstanding top four with the return of Claudia Schreier. For now, have to consider them the top team in Shore-South-B.
6. Manchester Township (GA: 173.3 T5: 881)
But don't discount Manchester, even for a second. The only team outside TRN that goes five-deep with averages over 170, the Hawks can explode for a big number, as they did in the last game of the CJWC to move up to fifth. Theresa Bedaro has been one of the best, carrying a 188 overall average, and Vicki Smith has improved nearly 10 pins during her senior year.
7. Toms River South (GA: 170.1 T5: 847)
The final team of the seven-team breakaway at the top, TRS has broken 2690 twice this season, put up 2641 at CJWC, and finished ahead of both Brick schools at the Snowball. Natalie Swindell's senior year has been fantastic, winning South Jersey singles and carrying an overall average above 191. Lots of talent throughout the lineup: Hannah Dalton put up a loud 673 on Monday.
8. Teaneck (GA: 164.6 T5: 813)
Three four-man 2000 sets last week, as the best team in the Big North bides its time until a sectional showdown with #1 Warren Hills. They're 56-0 in conference play, Margaux Lesser is up to #2 in the conference with a 187 average, and when the whole tournament team is together, they're a dangerous bunch.
9. Woodbridge (GA: 158.7 T5: 790)
This begins a six-team run of GMC squads, and there's no meaningful separation between any of them. The Barrons have the best combination of recent results (2563 in a match last week, 9th at CJWC) and season-long stats. Eliza Abreu, Breanna Tolocka and Meagan Raimondo are all carrying averages over 160.
10. East Brunswick (GA: 160.6 T5: 801)
Bit of a down week, dropping a set to South Brunswick and finishing 10th at CJWC, but still sitting on excellent season-long numbers. The Bears are paced by Madison Steinbeck, who's been fantastic, carrying a 194 overall average, and junior Alicia McLaughlin who's averaging 167.
11. Monroe (GA: 158.6 T5: 787)
The Falcons had a tough week, but Victoria Stasicky and Bridget Bolan, averaging 195 & 187 respectively in GMC play, had strong tournament debuts, and should be right in the middle of a tough battle in Central Group IV.
12. Carteret (GA: 153.1 T5: 761)
If this were based on just the hottest team, Carteret would be much higher. Lit it up last week, shooting 2478-2465-2565-2430 on four consecutive days, including a strong 8th place at CJWC. They may not have a high-average superstar, but Angela Baginsky, Ashley Espy and Amanda Medvetz are all over 160 on the season, and they're all on the upswing.
13. South Brunswick (GA: 158.4 T5: 796)
See how tight these GMC numbers are? Put up an excellent 2506 set last Wednesday. Another team with a strong top three: Rachel Guida, Kirsten Thorne and Jillian Kwock have been between 166 and 173 all season.
14. Edison (GA: 157.5 T5: 786)
Shot 2390 & 2432 (in a 2-2 draw with Woodbridge) last week before a tough day at CJWC. Tori Johnson has made a huge jump this year and is one of the very best in the conference with a 188 average, while underclassmen Sam Osiadacz and Faby Jean-Denis are each over 170.
15. Wayne Valley (GA: 158.7 T5: 781)
It's always helpful to have a superstar, and Wayne Valley is near the top of the Big North (51-5) due in large part to Marissa Cosentini's dominant 207 conference average. Haley D'Alessandro and Melody Morris are having strong years as well. Valley put up a 4-man 2052 last week.
16. Freehold Township (GA: 156.3 T5: 796)
The second place team in Shore-Central-B has better numbers than the first place team, especially that high T5 rating. Star Sarah Orensky (184 overall) is surrounded by several quality competitors, led by Jaden Schaefer and Kristen Pagliaro.
17. Mahwah (GA: 156.4 T5: 768)
Backed up last week's inspired FDU tournament effort with a pair of 4-man 1900s. Mahwah has the depth to be a postseason threat, with Justina Kender, Allie Adamski and top-five freshman Michaella Raab all averaging over 160.
18. Ramsey (GA: 155.5 T5: 743)
The biggest threat to Carteret's state Group I title hopes, Lindsay Pepper and Angela DiNallo are a fantastic top two for a team that put up a strong 1977 4-man set last week and then took Mahwah 4-3 in a match last Thursday.
19. Holy Angels (GA: 155.5 T5: 774)
Churning out sets in the high 1800s (4-man), Holy Angels has a strong top two in Alexa Hernandez and Amelia Brunda, each over 170 overall, and has the depth to match up well with Mahwah in North Group II.
20. Central (GA: 149.2 T5: 778)
Ally Dalton and Madison McFadden lead a talented group that can take a game from the blue-chippers in the Shore South A once in a while. If they put it together for one day, they could do some damage in the postseason.
FIVE THAT JUST MISSED
Colonia
Colts Neck
Washington Township
Ewing
Ocean Township
Lots of star power in this group, led by Laryssa Fiore of Colonia, Morgan Gitlitz of Colts Neck and Alexa Tieto of Ocean Township. Ewing is 31-1 in matches; their numbers are just a tiny bit short. Washington Township may still make it into the rankings when they get some more matches in - Diana Chan is having an excellent season.
FIVE MORE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Bergen Tech
Eastern
JP Stevens
Manasquan
Wall Township
Eastern was so great at CJWC I almost threw out the season numbers and ranked them. Bergen Tech has been very busy and competitive in the Big North. JP Stevens broke 2400 last week. Manasquan is giving Ocean Twp a fight in Shore-Central-A, and Wall is right there with them, shooting 2320 last week.
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