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The 2017-18 Season in Review

LINKS TO ALL THE POSTSEASON COVERAGE All the numbers have been pretty well crunched and the lists made.  The writing takes a while. I can&...

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Girls Rankings for 1-18-17

Well, we've got a bit of a pickle up top, huh?

Brick Memorial has been the dominant force in the sport all season (and, along with Brick Township, for years going back) and has the stats to prove it.  But Warren Hills came along and beat them at a neutral site.  And then did it again at a different event, different house.  So Who's #1?

The Case for Brick Memorial
Tournaments are great fun, and a valuable measuring stick, and a way to have a definitive champion at the end of the season, but bowling is a game-in, game-out, week-in, week-out sport.  The regular season is the primary thing. The best bowler in any league is the one with the highest average, and the same applies to teams.  The rankings use Game Average and T5 as the primary sorting tools, and Brick Memorial is higher, a LOT higher, by both measures (Brick Township has a higher GA, for that matter, despite Warren Hills bowling in a conference that does bowl 6/count 5).  Warren Hills had a great day on Saturday, shooting 2917.  The Mustangs have beaten that total ten times this season.  They average higher than that.  To make Warren Hills #1, you have to value 7 games over 3 days more highly than the other 45 games bowled since December 1.  That doesn't seem right.

The Case for Warren Hills
These two teams have been on the same lanes at the same time twice, and the Blue Streaks won each time. If the stats are even remotely close, you have to reward the team that won it on the lanes.  Yes, Brick Memorial has better season-long stats, but there are two big reasons for that: 1) Warren Hills has only had their top 5 starting lineup together for a full series twice all year: Saturday's CJWC and Monday's Snowball. And 2) Warren Hills bowls in the Skyland Conference, which means that unlike the Shore teams that bowl every match at Ocean Lanes, the Streaks have to travel to four different houses, including one where they've struggled a bit and two where Jason Belmonte might struggle to score consistently.  That takes a toll on your numbers, and the conference averages clearly don't accurately reflect the skill level of Katie Winch or Jenna Henderson. On the same lanes at the same time, Warren Hills is just as good as Brick Memorial.  Which they just proved.  Twice.

I'm going to catch hell for this either way, huh?

THE TOP TWENTY GIRLS BOWLING TEAMS IN NEW JERSEY

1. Brick Memorial
LW: 1     GA: 197     T5: 995
Quiet down.  Everything above affecting the stats is true, but the missing bowlers thing is probably true about any number of teams and I can't give extra credit just because I know a little more this time.  Memorial has won 3 other tournaments this season, and wasn't exactly blown out in these last two.

2. Warren Hills
LW: 4     GA: 182     T5: 935
On paper, BM is superior, but the reason it's so close on the lanes is that Katie Winch & Jenna Henderson are proving to be amazingly clutch tournament bowlers.

3. Brick Township
LW: 2     GA: 185     T5: 928
Dragons had a really good week overshadowed by the top 2, firing 2817-2812-2711 (3rd at CJWC).

4. Manchester Township
LW: 3     GA: 174     T5: 886
Monster 993 final game pulled them up to 5th at CJWC.  Still the Group 2 favorites.

5. Ocean Township
LW: 6     GA: 173     T5: 877
Ok, co-favorites.  Ocean was all over it last week, sweeping Manasquan (2738) and Wall (2647), winning the Long Branch tournament (2612) and 4th at CJWC (2567).

6. Toms River South
LW: 5     GA: 170     T5: 853
TRS's strength is its top-to-bottom consistency and depth.  When one of their bowlers goes big, they can hang with the top 5.  2706 last Tuesday in a loss to Brick Memorial, 8th at CJWC.

7. Toms River North
LW: 7     GA: 169     T5: 867
Having a fine year and if things break right could challenge BM for the Group IV title, but it's hard not to be excited for the future of this program, with 5 underclassmen and another Peters on the horizon.

8. Holy Angels
LW: 8     GA: 167     T5: 846
Blew out the field at the Bergen County event; they're that rare 4-bowler team that has true depth and doesn't lose a step when going to five.  Still wish I knew what group they'll be in.

9. Lacey
LW: 10     GA: 165     T5: 836
2531 & 2600 last week, but they had a great day at the Snowball, sitting in qualifying position most of the day (hope to have complete results soon, thanks as always to Coach Vargas).

10. Edison
LW: 11     GA: 166     T5: 825
The Eagles have got to be the most consistent good team anywhere.  Last week: 2511-2581-2598-2504 (7th at CJWC).

11. Wayne Valley            LW:12    GA:168    T5:815
12. Teaneck                    LW:9     GA:169    T5:808
13. Eastern                     LW:13    GA:159    T5:802
14. Freehold Township     LW:14    GA:156    T5:807
15. Howell                     LW:15    GA:156    T5:783
16. Monroe                    LW:un    GA:155    T5:765
17. Central                     LW:16    GA:153    T5:777
18. Woodbridge              LW:un    GA:150    T5:759
19. South Plainfield        LW:20    GA:152    T5:798
20. Manasquan              LW:18    GA:151    T5:791

Wayne Valley & Teaneck are clearly 2-3 in the Big North at the 5-bowler game, and each keep topping 2000 at the 4-bowler.  Eastern turned in a solid 2447 for 9th at the CJWC.  It's a shame that Freehold doesn't seem to bowl any in-season tournaments; they have a really talented top-2 in Clare Chaffer and Sarah Orensky. Howell put up an impressive 2559 last week before taking 11th at Bowlero, followed closely by Monroe whose 2389 was the worst of their 4 series; it was a good week for the Falcons. Central averaged 157 last week.  Woodbridge gets into the top 20 on the strength of a huge 2524 in the CJWC, good enough for 6th place, higher than several ranked teams. Lanasia Neal is keeping South Plainfield ranked by sheer will.  After 2387 (2nd place) at the LB tournament, I'm going to assume Manasquan was missing a bowler or two on Saturday and take their result with a grain of salt.

FIVE TEAMS THAT JUST MISSED

Carteret
Washington Township
Paramus Catholic
Barnegat
Southern

FIVE TEAMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON

South Brunswick
Gloucester Tech
Colts Neck
Colonia
Matawan

South Brunswick remains on this list; they just seem poised to break out. Gloucester Tech only had one under par result this week and they're an excellent bet to bounce back.  Colts Neck cracked 2300 for the first time this season and has a very solid top 5. Colonia & Matawan make the list off of nice showings at CJWC, 14th & 13th respectively, each beating five more highly ranked squads.

Group Rankings tomorrow.  I'm off to take my shunning.

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