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The 2017-18 Season in Review

LINKS TO ALL THE POSTSEASON COVERAGE All the numbers have been pretty well crunched and the lists made.  The writing takes a while. I can&...

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

17-18 Preview: Other Stars & Other Stuff

UNAFFILIATED STARS

There are a handful of high school bowlers in New Jersey that deserve a preview mention despite not having a high school team to be a part of, including our defending boys individual champion.  There are several more very good high school-age bowlers out there, but I'm limiting myself to those that have competed in NJSIAA events.  If there are any more that belong and plan to enter this year, please let me know.

Ryan Carlisi, Senior, Steinert
The 2017 champ hasn't slowed down a bit since February, putting up impressive league scores.  He's definitely a threat to return at states.

Mark Friedman, Senior, Cedar Creek
Second place in the loaded South Jersey sectional in 2017 with a huge 738.

Lauren Marks, Junior, Parsippany
Qualified for individual states in 2017 in a brutal North Jersey sectional field.

Justin Pavlik, Senior, Ridge
Scored a terrific 300/761 in the Central sectional and made the cut at states with a 695 set.

Paige Piombino, Senior, West Morris Central
Finished 2017 with a 187 league average and a runnerup finish in the Morris County tournament.

Francis Vitelli, Junior, North Hunterdon
Second in South Jersey singles, second at Skyland Conference, made the cut at Junior Gold U20 and is the points leader in the NJ JBT.

JERSEY KIDS IN COLLEGE

Figured I'd check out the college ranks and see where the seniors we covered last year ended up.  Women have a huge advantage with bowling as an NCAA sport, of course, and because of the status of nearly all men's teams as "club sports" (despite the very competitive nature of their seasons), it's hard to find rosters, so this is just the girls.  I'm pretty much 100% sure that I'm missing a handful, so help me out here.

Alabama State - Alize Stevenson, St. Mary's
Belmont Abbey - Tori Bird, Brick Memorial; Touri Holmes, Edison
Caldwell - Gabby Pangaro, Clifton; Madison Perry, Hawthorne
Chestnut Hill - Madison Gibson, Howell; Laura Oliver, Central, Kristina Scimone, Eastern
Fairleigh Dickinson - Aimee Sherman, Jackson Memorial; Jenna Henderson, Warren Hills
Felician - Jenn Ingulli, Ocean Township
Franklin Pierce - Deanne Calantoni, Woodbridge
Kutztown - Jaime Golden, Sparta; Dana Henry, Ocean Township, Dorrie-Ann Rizzo, Wallkill Valley
Long Island University - Sarah Florence, Cedar Creek
Madaille - Carla Hansen, Gloucester Tech
Mount Aloysius - Michelle Bello, Pennsauken
New Jersey City - Shea Balmann, Pinelands; Valerie Moore, Old Bridge
Pikeville - Michelle Dekowski, Linden
Sam Houston State - Haley Connelly, Raritan
Vanderbilt - Lauren Potechin, Millburn
Wilmington - Clare Chaffer, Freehold Township; Leah Henry, Cumberland

That's 25 girls from the class of '17 (plus whoever I'm missing) on rosters.  Seems like a pretty good number to me.  Best of luck to all the Jersey girl freshmen (and the 60 or so older girls, too.)

GROUP CHANGES

By looking at the new NJSIAA enrollment figures, I have my PROJECTED groupings for the 2018 sectionals.  These are based on last year's entries, so any change in the entry list can change the groups at the margins; this is far, far from certain.

BOYS NORTH 1A
Park Ridge/Emerson down from II to I
Ridgefield Park down from III to II
St. Joseph-Montvale up from II to III
Queen of Peace (GI) closed

BOYS NORTH IB
Hopatcong up from III to IV
Dickinson down from IV to III
Wallkill Valley down from II to I
Harrison up from I to II

BOYS NORTH II
Phillipsburg (new program) in at IV
Linden down from IV to III
Nutley down from III to II
Caldwell down from II to I

BOYS CENTRAL
Monroe up from III to IV
Watchung Hills down from IV to III
Long Branch up from II to III
Middletown North down from III to II

BOYS SOUTH
Burlington Township up from II to III
Jackson Liberty down from III to II

GIRLS NORTH
Hackensack up from III to IV
Kearny down from IV to III
Phillipsburg (new program) in at III

GIRLS CENTRAL
Monroe up from III to IV
Watchung Hills down from IV to III

GIRLS SOUTH
Burlington Township up from II to III
Jackson Liberty down from III to II

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE BLOG IN '17-'18

The rankings I hope to continue weekly, starting in late December, and all the postseason previews and all-state picks should return.  I probably won't be able to write quite as many regular season updates as last year, unless the score-reporting situation gets a lot better, but I'll do what I can.

I'm ambivalent about the high averages lists, to say the least.  On the one hand, until the all-state lists came out, the top averages posts were by far the most popular on the blog. On the other hand, those numbers are dirty.  At the risk of getting on the wrong side of a few folks, I'm going to explain why.

Using players' conference averages as a basic evaluating tool is problematic for any number of reasons.  Some bowlers get to bowl every single conference game in the same center, while others have to score in two, three, maybe six different places.  Some centers are, of course, much higher scoring than others.  It is extremely probable that there are some bowlers averaging under 210 that, if they got to bowl the same schedule as someone at the top, might average well over 220.  Then we have kids who may average high in-conference but struggle in tournaments and vice-versa.  There's really no way to resolve any of these inherent problems, so I try to acknowledge them and present the data as is.

But there's one other thing that skews the numbers and it's completely avoidable.  Without mentioning any conferences, or teams, and definitely without mentioning any bowlers, there is a practice out there to replace a bowler mid-game when he's struggling and not count the game against his average.  There may be a handful of times when this practice is done to try to win the team point: I think that's legitimate.  But done exclusively to protect a player's average, this practice is, in my opinion, dishonest and it undermines the credibility of every player average involved.  In such a short season (40-60 games), if you have a 200 average bowler and yank him a half-dozen times where he would have shot 150, you bump his average 7 pins.  That's a significant change, and I'm disturbed by both the resulting questionable rankings, and the message it sends both the bowler who got the boost and the bowlers he's now undeservedly ranked above.

To be clear, this practice is, apparently, legal.  I'd love to ask all coaches to stop, but I'm sure that's naive.  I'd ask the NJSIAA to consider stepping in and outlawing the practice; what do you think would happen if a wrestling coach were allowed to pull his star whenever he got behind in the 3rd period, so that he'd be undefeated when districts started?  But the NJSIAA will not consider anything unless the complaint comes from coaches or athletic directors.  I could stop doing the averages list altogether, but that's a baby/bathwater situation, I think, and the majority of the kids on the list aren't affected by these maneuvers. So all I can do is this: if you're reading this and you agree with me, tell your coaches and ADs.  There's no reason we can't get this changed.

Ok, off my soapbox.  A few more preview posts including preseason rankings and then Friday we'll finally get some pins flying around New Jersey.





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