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Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Sectional Preview - Boys Central Jersey

BOYS CENTRAL JERSEY
Saturday, February 11 at Bowlero, North Brunswick

New for 2017

St. Rose is participating; they did not in 2016. New Brunswick and Bridgewater did not enter after participating in 2016.  Carteret moves up from G1 to G2, Middletown South moves up from G2 to G3.

Ranked Teams Participating:
#2 Woodbridge (G3), #4 East Brunswick (G4), #6 Ocean Township (G2), #8 Manasquan (G1), #11 South Brunswick (G4), #16 St. Joseph-Metuchen (G2), #17 St. Rose (G1), "Next 10" Sayreville (G3), "Next 10" Monroe (G3), "Next 10" Old Bridge (G4)

GROUP I
defending champ: Keansburg
#8 Manasquan has the inside track at the title here.  The Warriors carry a truly impressive T5 of 1009, finished just one point behind Ocean Township in Shore Central A, boast a high series of 3217, and have high finishes in a bunch of tournaments, including 2nd in qualifying at the Shore Tournament last week (2775 in low-scoring conditions).  Manasquan throws very good bowlers out there at every spot: Alex Danish (185 average), Kyle Bauter (199), Dylan Wolfe (193) and Chris Heilos (203) can all throw numbers.  And then they have Austin Devereux, who has top fours at two tournaments, a 300 game, and a sparkling 228 average.  This is the favorite for the state title.

*edit: Apparently, Manasquan actually defeated Ocean Twp for the Shore Central A championship (the standings sheet did not reflect one match)

But don't give them the sectional trophy just yet.  #17 St. Rose is a powerhouse that has scored big sets (a high of 3122) and has beaten Manasquan straight-up in a regular season match.  Joe Ocello is the big name for the (Rolling) Roses.  After a mandatory transfer sitout, Ocello roared into the all-state picture with a 300 game, a 799 series, and a 226 average over 36 games.  He's far from alone: Jarrett Toth sits at 203, and four options for the other 3 spots are all over 188: Joe Chiusano, David Schuld, Alec Kuncken and Carter Vanderslice.  A subpar outing at the Shore event doesn't worry me - I've been on this squad all year and I think they're ready for the next level.

Bishop Ahr is capable of stealing a TOC spot for themselves.  A very strong 12-4 in the GMC, the Trojans took a game from #2 Woodbridge in the conference quarterfinals. Ahr gets it done with a balanced lineup led by Andrew Funk (196) and Erik Gonzalez (191), and has gone as high as 3075 this year.  If one of the favorites stumbles, they'll be ready.

One more Shore North teams will be ready as well: Matawan goes about seven deep, and while the individual numbers aren't huge (Matthew Nesbitt leads the Huskies at 191), they can bowl really well as a team: Matawan was only six pins behind Manasquan at Shore tournament qualifying.

Defending champ Keansburg, St. John Vianney and Keyport have each had their moments and Justin Johnson of SJV is a good bowler, but their numbers just aren't in the challengers' range. Middlesex, South River and South Hunterdon round out the field.

GROUP II
defending champ: St. Joseph-Metuchen
We've got another two-team breakaway here, and it's a great one.  #6 Ocean Township has had a wonderful season.  The Spartans GA (202) and T5 (1020) are among the very best in the state, and the team has gone as high as 3274.  Tournament success has been mixed, but they won the LB Wave and scored a solid 5th at the wildly competitive CJWC.  Matt Redbord (217) leads an incredibly strong lineup that features 3 more starters averaging over 200 (Brian Davis, Logan Smith and Douglas Rhoades) and another at 194, Andrew Dorko.  Ocean Twp put away both Manasquan and St. Rose to win a very strong conference, Shore Central A.  If you trust numbers, as I do, this is the team to beat in Group II; not just in Central Jersey, but in the state.

*edit: It's not on the official standings sheet, but I have information that Manasquan did actually win the Shore Central A; doesn't change anything about the preview, but it's important to be accurate

Let's not write off the defending champs, though.  #16 St. Joseph of Metuchen is one of those GMC teams that almost seems to have too much talent; because of the 6/5 rules, they all get to bowl every match, they're all very good, how the hell to do pick five?  Joe Chrobak and his 210 average are at the top of list, followed by Gio Santiago (197), John Hoban (194), Justin Biancamano (194), and at least 3 viable options for #5.  Their balance and depth are perfect for a 6/5 league; they just need to pick the right five to get it to work in this tournament.  I like their chances.

Another pair of GMC teams are the most likely candidates to steal a TOC spot.  South Plainfield has a star in Angelo Salici (216 average), a good running partner in Michael Menkin (196), a strong 189 GA and a bunch of quality options for the Tigers to fill out the sheet. Iselin Kennedy is fairly similar: Daniel Whelan can hang with the best, Christopher Falcone has thrown some impressive sets this season, and the Mustangs' T5 says they have a credible shot.

Ewing has had a wonderful regular season, going 17-1 / 66-6, but a team that hasn't broken 3000 probably will be a step behind the top squads. I do want to give full credit to Ewing's Chase Springett, who managed two wins for the wrestling team on Saturday, including a 37 second pin, and followed it up by shooting 659 on Monday.  That's high-level stuff.

Neptune has a good one in Aedin Martin, and is strong enough 1-thru-5 that a great day, a really great day, just might put them in the mix.  Colonia has some talent, and sports a decent 180 GA, but the top teams are likely to set a standard the Patriots can't quite match.

Connor Pyburn of Wall (who has a 300 this season) and Jordan Payas of Carteret could make some noise in the individual rankings, but their teams, along with Long Branch, look to be a ways behind the contenders.

GROUP III
defending champ: Woodbridge 
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.  Yes, #2 Woodbridge was upset by a great South Brunswick team in the GMC tournament.  No, that doesn't change anything.  This is still a ridiculously talented team with the #1 GA in New Jersey and the favorites to win the Group III state title.  17-1 / 66-6 in conference play, tournament wins at James, Wheeler & Brick, with a 2nd at CJWC. James Stoveken shot 836 two weeks ago, for goodness sake.  He and Kyle Bilawsky average 443 combined.  The Barrons' depth behind those two is absurd: Jason Bilawsky, John Drost, Travis Makara-Marino, Gabriel Navedo, Joseph Palmer and Jeremy Soto have each thrown big, big numbers this season.  I don't know how you choose five.  I do know that whatever five go out there seem exceedingly likely to earn a spot at the TOC.

The defending state champs have been... I'm gonna go with "inconsistent".  Sayreville has had rough days at two different tournaments.  They've also shot a lights-out 3287.  They lost 5 regular season matches. They also earned a strong 193.5 GA.  The Bombers clearly have a lot of ability: Chris DeOcampo's averaging 213. Ryan Johnson's at 203 and shot 771 in the GMC tournament last week. Eddie Peterson has at least five 600s on the season.  They certainly have a great chance to advance here, and could challenge Woodbridge if all pistons fire.

Monroe has a great chance, too. I like this team a great deal. Louis Folgore has grown into a star, pulling his average up to 217 and putting up 300/751 in the GMC tournament. Ryley McKiernan is just under 200. The rest of the lineup is very solid, a bunch of guys capable of rolling 6's.  The right mix could very easily send the Falcons to the TOC, and it wouldn't really be an upset.

Edison has quiety had a very solid season.  Their GA (186) and T5 (926) are good, and they've scored as high as 3046. Jason Smith is just under 200, Joseph Banwer's at 195.  They're a good team, just overshadowed by the bonanza of great teams in the GMC this year.  Unfortunately, three of those teams are in this sectional.

Middletown North is clearly a longshot, but they have sneaky good numbers when you look at the T5, and Joe Yatsko was the best bowler in Shore North B.

A sectional this loaded means quite a few teams without a serious chance to contend.  In this grouping, that applies to Manalapan (but watch out for Justin Korman as an individual), North Brunswick, Christian Brothers, Freehold Township, and Middletown South.

GROUP IV
defending champ: East Brunswick 
This is, in all likelihood, another two-team race.  If it's anything like the GMC tournament final, it's going to be something special: #4 East Brunswick topped #11 South Brunswick by two pins 1016-1014 in the final game to take the title, two games to one.

East Brunswick has the slightly better numbers, including an excellent 205.9 GA, and superior tournament results, finishing 2nd (SB was 6th) at the James and 3rd (SB was 8th) at CJWC.  They throw a bunch of excellent bowlers at you, starting with Sam Bortnick (3rd at CJWC individually, 224 average) and Daniel Lenk (216 average).  That's far from the end, as Jack Deruvo (190), James Reitano (199), and Ethan Shamim (192) have all come through for the Bears in 2016-17.

I've probably undercovered South Brunswick all season.  There's an awful lot of talent here. Every single one of the Vikings can beat you:  Tyler Kohutanycz (206), Nick Delacruz (197), Anthony Fama (200), Noah Li (192) and Chan Woo Ang (197) all 192+.  That's some scary balance.  I think Tuesday's GMC result makes it pretty clear that this is a total tossup, and both are definitely in the mix for a state title.

We're always looking for a darkhorse, and the choice here is Howell.  The Rebels have a strong tournament resume, with good performances at the North Jersey team challenge and in winning the Monmouth. This is another squad with balance: the five starters are all between 184 and 198, topped by Brian Garofano (198), Robbie Wetzel (195) and Pat Nelson (193).

Old Bridge has a shot to get involved here, too.  Doug Titmas has a half-dozen 600s, Peter Mattson is averaging 192 and Gerard Chidichimo has been great, sitting at 208. The Knights GA is over 190, 26th in the state.

Piscataway has decent numbers, including an 897 T5; they're just in the wrong group.  JP Stevens has the same tale to tell, but watch out for Cameron LaPlant; the sophomore is averaging 217 and is a major threat as an individual.

Hunterdon Central doesn't have the firepower to stay with the top teams, but keep an eye on Justin DeMartin and Thomas Mathews on the individual side.  Same for Ethan Goldring of Watchung Hills.

Franklin and Perth Amboy complete the field.

INDIVIDUALS
Not listed on the NJSIAA grouping sheet, but I expect Francis Vitelli of North Hunterdon to participate and to be a factor. He came in second in South Jersey singles and the Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex tournament, as well as a league average around 225.

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