Sectional Preview - Girls North

GIRLS NORTH
Saturday, February 10 at Bowler City, Hackensack

New for 2018
Lots.  Ridgewood and Hackensack jump from G3 to G4.  Ramsey and Westwood jump from from G1 to G2. Montclair and Lakeland didn't enter this year.  Fair Lawn, Dumont, Lincoln, Northern Highlands and Mt. St. Dominic were new entries, along with Phillipsburg, a new program in G3.

What I got wrong
Lots of changes to the entries list played havoc with my projections.  I expected Mahwah to drop to G1 - didn't happen. I expected Kearny to drop to G3 - didn't happen. I expected Nutley to drop to G2 - didn't happen. Ramsey's jump to G2 was a surprise, as was Westwood's. Ditto Ridgewood's jump to G4.

Ranked Teams Participating
#2 Warren Hills, #8 Teaneck, #15 Mahwah, #16 Holy Angels, #20 Wayne Valley, "Just Missed" Ramsey & Hackensack, "Good Argument" Bergen Tech, Ridgewood, Paramus Catholic & Kearny

GROUP I
defending champ:  Ramsey
We start with what is unquestionably the most wide open grouping in the 2018 postseason.  The expected favorites, including the defending champ, are all up a group. And that leaves Mother Seton in a pretty good position as the favorite.  The Setters took a bit of a beating from the GMC, but have the best stats in this grouping and have a pair of solid bowlers in Dominique Lilantonio (144) and Alexandra Anton (147).

DePaul may be the best of the rest. Not a lot of score reporting for the Spartans, but their fifth place finish at the Passaic tells me that their GA & T5, each second best on this list, are legitimate. Summer Ramundo looks to be DePaul's best bowler.

As I've mentioned many times, I don't get many scores from Essex schools, so I'm not entirely sure how good Mt. St. Dominic really is.  Very, very limited results tell me the Lady Lions should be competitive.

Out next contender is HCIAA champ Hoboken, who took their league by just one point. The Redwings have a good bowler in Lyana Cepeda (141) and a lineup without any big holes, which may be exactly enough to advance here.

Dumont just resumed their girls' team this year and you'd have to call it a pretty successful debut: 56-0 in their division, 79-26 in all Big North competition, and a very young team with a bunch of freshmen, including average leader Lindsey Buchheister (143).  The Huskies have a bright future and could absolutely steal a TOC spot here in year one.

Competing in probably the toughest Big North girls division, Pascack Hills' record isn't pretty, but they can fill all five positions with a good competitor and they beat Dumont in a dual match back in December, which means the Cowboys are very much alive here.

Hudson Catholic has six options averaging over 106, which is enough to give the Hawks a chance to advance if they have a great day.  McNair finished second in the HCIAL  and has essentially the same argument.

Marist and Lincoln don't look likely to be competitive here.


GROUP II
defending champ: Holy Angels 
This is where the entry list changes hit the fan - we have two defending sectional champs and two defending runnersup, including the defending Group I and Group II state champs.  But I still think #15 Mahwah may be the favorite. They have the highest GA in the field, outscored Ramsey twice (one was a 3-4 loss), defeated Holy Angels in a dual match, finished 92-6 in Big North matches, won the Irwin tournament, outscored all their Group II competitors in Bergen qualifying and showed tremendous heart at the FDU challenge, winning 2 Baker matches and pushing Warren Hills to five games. The Thunderbirds are led by one of NJ's top freshmen, Michaella Raab (178 average), and have plenty more firepower in Justina Kender (156), Julia Colucci (152) and Allie Adamski (165).

But really, the defending champs at the #16 Academy of Holy Angels are just as good. The Angels won the Bergen County tournament (again), qualified well at the FDU Challenge (2362) and have beaten the likes of Bergen Tech, Hackensack and Wayne Valley in dual matches. The biggest factor in their favor, besides experience, is that their very strong top three of Alexa Hernandez (165), Amelia Brunda (173) and Rebecca Sicat (155) has become a top four with the emergence of freshman Isabelle Egan (155), who shot 608 just last week.

Just outside the top 20, I expected defending Group I champ Ramsey to be one of the favorites to win a Group I state title in 2018, but instead they're in a serious fight to advance in Group II. After qualifying very well at the FDU (2431, 2nd behind Warren Hills), we know the Rams have good tournament chops. The numbers are just a bit behind the two favorites, but they beat everyone on their schedule except Mahwah and Teaneck, and feature an excellent top two in Angela DiNallo (166) and Lindsay Pepper (181), who's been great in tournaments (191). Throw in Samantha Suser's 146 average, and this may very well be one of the TOC qualifiers, and it won't really be an upset.

Last year's runnerup has slipped a bit behind that top three, but Demarest had a successful regular season, going 54-16 in division and only losing to Teaneck. The Norsemen go fully five deep, with talent and balance up top in Julia Pangburn (148), Madison Tredo (145) and Samantha Carabetta (146), which makes them a dangerous darkhorse pick here.

Three Big North teams sit in the middle of Group II, all with incredibly close numbers. When in doubt, go with the squad with the best bowler, and here that's Indian Hills and their star Rachel Duncan, who'a averaging 181 and has a pair of 600s this season. The Braves have several options after Duncan, and they'll all need to get hot for IH to be involved.

Of course, Paramus beat Indian Hills twice and sit at 56-42 on the season, so don't sleep on the Spartans and an emerging talent in sophomore Samantha Bruno (159 average), who's been improving quite a bit, including a 560 set in their last match.

Last year's Group I state champ in Westwood lost nearly their entire lineup to graduation and are clearly a few clicks behind the contenders in 2018, but the Cardinals are just as clearly building something very big for the future - six girls have gotten significant varsity experience, mostly averaging in the mid 130s, and they're one sophomore and five freshmen. This rebuild won't take long.

River Dell is a step behind the others, numbers-wise, but should be competitive.  The Golden Hawks are led by Angelina Rabbia (139).  Tenafly went 40-30 in the National division and feature a pretty good bowler in Silvia Acosta (145).

Snyder and Ridgefield Park complete the entry list.

GROUP III
defending champ: Warren Hills

Last year's TOC champs from #2 Warren Hills lost three seniors and are somehow just as good in 2018.  Well, the somehow is really the entry of two incredibly talented freshmen in Samantha Irwin (172) and Olivia Ostrander (177), and the emergence of Jackie Nesbeth (556 at HWS) as a solid #5.  They join holdovers from last year in sophomore Kelcie Mannon (191 overall, 5 top threes in tournaments) and senior captain Katie Winch, who's bowling at an all-state level (193 overall, 665 at Skyland this week). The Blue Streaks don't have the state's best numbers, but they've won everything they've touched: FDU Challenge (top qualifiers and won 2 Baker rounds), CJWC, Snowball (2nd in qualifying by 5 pins, won 2 Baker rounds), and 77-0 in Skyland matches. It's hard to imagine the drive to win another championship ending here.

Can anyone wrestle the title away from Warren Hills?  Maybe #8 Teaneck can. The Bergen County champs are very, very talented. They finished second at the Irwin, dominated Big North play at 93-5, own the state's #7 GA (168) and #8 T5 (816) and gave the champs all they could handle last year before finishing second. The Highwaywomen put some really great bowlers out there: Gianni Calzadilla (165) and Mia Aish (172) are reliable scorers, Marguax Lesser (190) is the #2 bowler in the entire Big North, Shayna Jimenez (168) has had an excellent freshman season, and Valeria Rosario came up big in last year's sectionals when the team went to their 5-man lineup. Live dog for sectionals, darkhorse contender at states.

If either of the top two slip up, #20 Wayne Valley will be there to make them pay. The Indians own the #17 GA (158) and T5 (781) in the state, they won the Passaic County championship, and they put up a very impressive regular season record: 88-10 including 12 sweeps. Good bowlers?  Absolutely.  Jennae Schechter (140) has improved greatly over the season, and seniors Melody Morris (160) and Hayley D'Alessandro (166) are talented and tournament-experienced.  Sophomore anchor Marissa Cosentini is simply one of the very best bowlers around, with the third-highest conference average in the state at 208.

It may take a couple of moderately unusual things happening, but Paramus Catholic has a legitimate shot to contend, even in this field. They took third in the Irwin, ahead of Wayne Valley, they swept Holy Angels two weeks ago, and outscored them in a loss earlier in the season. And the Paladins have some real ability, led by Alisha Khan, whose 162 average is belied by some fantastic tournament sets, and Victoria Vucak (178 average), who's at 186 in tournaments and carded sets of 660 and 646 within the last week.

Nutley is one of those Essex County teams for whom I have limited information.  What I do have looks good enough to finish mid-field: a competitive 678 T5, and solid bowlers in Alyssa Pizzano (151) and Julia Bollano (148).

The program in Phillipsburg is brand new, but the Stateliners are having some real success, finishing in second place in the Skyland conference regular season, third in the conference tournament,  and putting out a lineup with a good top three in Kelsey Miller (139), Marissa Brink (140) and freshman Alyssa Rieger (148).

Fair Lawn is outside the contention window, but watch out for star freshman Krista Eskow, who's averaging 172 and has been fantastic in tournaments, including an individual first at the FDU team challenge.

The top two averages for Wayne Hills are freshmen, and the Patriots managed a nice fourth place finish at the Passaic, so the future may be bright.

Belleville, Immaculate Heart, and Northern Highlands round out the field.

GROUP IV
defending champ: Bergen Tech

Moving up from Group III to IV has its benefits for Hackensack, who comes in as the favorite. The Comets, who are very close to being ranked, have had a fantastic regular season, going 89-23 with a win over Teaneck, and they have an exceptionally strong top three in Donna Lee Graham (158), Annie Quinn (161, with a 611 set at County) and junior Arielle Wallace (185), who's a star in North Jersey. They qualified second at the Bergen with a 2358 and should have plenty enough firepower to get it done in their hometown.

The busiest team in the Big North is probably Bergen Tech, with their excellent 15-2 record, which included impressive wins over Paramus Catholic and Wayne Valley. With the second highest GA in the group, and a T5 that's essentially equal to Hackensack. The defending champs might not have a superstar, but they are very deep and consistent, with very good scoring coming from Samantha Comes (154), Sydney Montalto (154), Mamiko Swanson (148) and Daniela Abril (145). They haven't had a lot of tournament success this season, but this seems like a good time to start.

Ridgewood could definitely be a factor here in Group IV.  The Maroons have a competitive 145 GA, own a regular season win over Hackensack, sit at 71-20 in points, finished second at the Bergen, and have very similar depth to Bergen Tech, with Carley Santangelo (150), Christina St. John (144), Chachi Francesca (143) and Caroline Gervolino (154), all underclassmen.

There are a lot of contenders from the Big North, but what if we think outside the box?  How about Kearny?  They finished a strong third at the Wheeler, completely dominated the HCIAL (84-0), with (think about this), six of the top seven averages in the conference.  Nicole Fonseca (151), Cassandra Gutierrez (145) and Caitlyn Battistas (140) lead the team, but no matter which Kardinals get to bowl, there will be zero weak links.

Passaic Tech had an impressive 78-27 regular season record, they finished second in the Passaic, and their 684 T5 makes them a viable darkhorse contender. Maryann Ramirez has had a great season for the Bulldogs, averaging 161.

I have very little information on Bloomfield, but what I do have suggests a likely mid-pack finish.

Clifton's stats are far enough behind the leaders that contention is unlikely, but the Mustangs may have a future star in freshman Juli-Anne Gamo, who averaged 146. Passaic pulled off an upset of Bergen Tech back in December; the Indians are led by junior Ashley Tepale (140).

Dickinson, Bayonne and North Bergen are not expected to contend.

INDIVIDUALS

No other sectional is as loaded with individual entries, as all the girls who play huge roles on their co-ed teams get a chance to qualify for the individual TOC.  This list has quite a few special bowlers, and literally every single one of them is a genuine threat, if not a favorite, to advance.

Emma Thies, Jefferson - 188 overall average, Morris County champ
Jamie Paddock, Montville - 189 average includes 713 series
Lauren Marks, Parsippany - independent bowler has qualified for states before
Rhianna Smith, Hopatcong - 210 average includes 3 tournament titles
Ashley Noel, Elizabeth - 177 average, 2nd at Union County tournament
Goldera Surles, Union Catholic - 202 average, 2nd at Union & Wheeler
Kaitlyn Lowey, Union Catholic - 182 average, 2nd at Wheeler
Kiara Powell, Union - 200 average, won Wheeler & Union, shot 678 at boys sectionals
Samantha Valle, Union - 182 average
Lacey Beall, Union - 189 average
Gabrielle Capalad, Leonia - 184 average, Bergen County champ
Shaelyn Shadwell, Sussex Tech, tough to break into ST's killer lineup, but has several 500+ sets.